Thursday, 6 December 2007

forecasting techniques

forecasting techniques

Most forecasting techniques used by futurologists involve setting up workshops that bring specialists together from a variety of fields such as architects, marketing, science's, social science's, designers, philosophers etc.....

Visioning another technique is a popular method in the studies of desirable futures and the one that gives emphasis to values. It is extensively used in urban planning. The visioning process is based on the assumption that images of the future lead peoples present behaviours, guide choices and influence decisions. Images of the future can be positive or negative and cause different responses according to the perceptions.

Vision is usually seen as a possible, desirable image of the future and can be defined as a compelling, inspiring statement of the preferred future that the authors and those who subscribe to the vision want to create.

There are a number of issues that need to be addressed while using the visioning method. Vision comprises peoples values, wishes, fears and desires. In order to make the visioning process work it is necessary to ensure that it is not making an idealistic wish list that vision is an image of the future shared by a whole community and that the vision is translatable into reality.

A secondary tool used by futurologists is the futures wheel. The futures wheel is a way of organizing thinking and questioning about the future, a kind of structured brainstorming. The name of a trend or event is written in the middle of a piece of paper, then small spokes are drawn wheel like from the center. Primary impacts or consequences are written at the end of each spoke. Next the secondary impacts of each primary impact form a second ring of the wheel. This ripple effect continues until a useful picture of the implications of the event or trend is clear.

The futures wheel is most commonly used to think through possible impacts of current trends or potential future events, organize thoughts about future events or trends. Create forecast within alternative scenarios show complex interrelationships display other futures research develop multi concepts nurture a futures conscious perspective and aid in group brainstorming.


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